Hurricane Jeanne
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Meeko · 09-14-2004, 08:01 PM

This hurricane season is out of control! I hope Jeanne disappears for the sake of everyone down south. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for everyone in AL and LA, because Ivan sounds terrible (I just realized what a bad pun that is - please forgive me for that one, I really do hope for the best for everyone being affected by these storms!)

**DrDolphin** · 09-14-2004, 08:18 PM

According to the weather channel at 8pm - Jeanne is a Tropical Storm (not a hurricane) and is currently tracking toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The 5 day track (the one that changes rapidly) currently projects 5 days from now Jeanne will be in the Bahamas - possibly as a miniman hurricane. Remember that this is the 5 day projection -- and subject to much change over time.

New Orleans is evacuating -- I seriously doubt that Amtrak will schedule trains to go through New Orleans until after Ivan passes through, makes land fall and assessment of track can be made. I hope Ivan does not mess up your trip.

kadterp · 09-14-2004, 08:22 PM

As with everyone else, I am sick of these hurricanes! Out of all the years that we go down in Sept, this is the worse one yet! I guess all those years where nothing happened, they are all coming this year! Well, we are still planning to go! If it was calling for a direct hit, we would have called it off for a week, but seeing that it isnt doing a direct hit to Orlando, we are there!

greystone98 · 09-15-2004, 10:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This hurricane season is out of control! I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for everyone in AL and LA, because Ivan sounds terrible (I just realized what a bad pun that is - please forgive me for that one, I really do hope for the best for everyone being affected by these storms!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry about it, Meeko. A little levity helps take the edge off the stress and worry. We will face what comes and make the best of it.

Still praying for our Passporter friends on the coastline.

Jennifer2003 · 09-15-2004, 10:57 AM

TROPICAL STORM Jeanne has a strike probability map on this site http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...11_strike.html

It's not even a hurricane yet. An hour ago, the Weather Channel was saying it had 70 MPH winds. Their cone had a Monday possible impact on Florida's tip. But there is still a lot of margin of error, and it could never become a hurricane altogether.

Please be careful about "ametuer" information you care to post. You should reconsider your weather sources and switch to the Weather Channel or even CNN. Hurricanes are serious business for people who can be effected and are nothing to be so casual about.

arielrocks · 09-15-2004, 12:03 PM

As I chew down the antacids here is what CNN is saying about Jeanne:

Tropical Storm Jeanne is threatening to turn into a hurricane Wednesday in the Caribbean as it approached Puerto Rico. At 8 a.m., it had wind of about 70 mph, just a few mph below hurricane strength, and was about 70 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Long-range forecasts showed it could be near Florida's east coast as early as the weekend.

Are we ready for K? The weather channel as of, my date stamp, says there is another one brewing a few miles off the coast of Africa. We are not telling our DD anything right now. We are staying on course and just hope everyone takes a deep breath and blows Jeanne off course. Sigh.

One hurricane a week. Folks, I think we need to seriously think mother nature is really ****** off with us. ]

Edited to remove word

RobinKay6573 · 09-15-2004, 12:43 PM

Iagree with you Graygables...hurricanes can be VERY unpredictable and it is very hard for anyone (even for meteorologists with years of experience) to predict the path of an approaching storm. I think people are also forgetting the impact of these storms. This isn't like predicting the score of a football game this is SERIOUS stuff...we are talking about people's lives here...not just vacation plans. Sorry to get so touchy but my sister's house and car was seriously damaged thanks to both Charlie and Frances so I know first hand how this storm can impact a loved one.

I just pray for everyone in the path of the approaching storms.

arielrocks · 09-15-2004, 07:11 PM

NBC News just announced an expected landfall hit on the US by Sunday or Monday.
Here is the link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6004150/
They say it has an eye on Georgia, which hasn't been hit in over a century. Interesting. MS and Alabama hadn't seen a hurricane in 40 and Georgia in 100?
This might delay our train, I hope not. Our layover is in DC on Monday. Going to be a long weekend of watching.

graygables · 09-15-2004, 10:13 PM

Maybe I'm not reading the *NWS BULLETIN* correctly, but this is what it says: THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE

TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN

PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT

THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED

WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT

TIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN

HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN

UNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME

WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE

TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR. WHILE THE

GFDL IS STILL A LEFT OUTLIER...IT HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE

RIGHT IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS.THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A LITTLE MORE

NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF

ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

There is no mention of Georgia or Florida or anywhere else in the continental United States for that matter. In fact, most models show it still veering northward into the Atlantic.

My point is this (and I mean to shout): STOP WATCHING WHAT EVERY TOM, DICK, AND HARRY HAS TO SAY ABOUT THIS *TROPICAL STORM* (*NOT* HURRICANE) AND LOOK AT THE NWS REPORTS AND GRAPHS FOR YOURSELF. THERE IS NO NEED FOR EVERYONE TO BE UP IN ARMS ABOUT SOMETHING THAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN AT THIS POINT!!!!!

There, now, everyone send some

to the folks about to deal with Ivan (since that's pretty much a given) and BACK OFF about the next one until the maps and NWS say it's time to start worrying about it, for crying out loud.

katspjs · 09-15-2004, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My point is this (and I mean to shout): STOP WATCHING WHAT EVERY TOM, DICK, AND HARRY HAS TO SAY ABOUT THIS *TROPICAL STORM* (*NOT* HURRICANE) AND LOOK AT THE NWS REPORTS AND GRAPHS FOR YOURSELF. THERE IS NO NEED FOR EVERYONE TO BE UP IN ARMS ABOUT SOMETHING THAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN AT THIS POINT!!!!!

There, now, everyone send some to the folks about to deal with Ivan (since that's pretty much a given) and BACK OFF about the next one until the maps and NWS say it's time to start worrying about it, for crying out loud

[/ QUOTE ]

AMEN!!!!

goofy4goofy · 09-15-2004, 11:44 PM

I think it really depends on which model you look at. Tropical Storms Jeanne could go anywhere at this point.

Are we worried here in Florida? Absolutely. But the stress of it all is really getting to me, as well as millions of other Floridians (and other Southerners and those living on the East Coast).

I'm sorry, but this is a serious matter. This is our life, not just a vacation for some people. I feel bad that some people may miss/delay their vacations because of the hurricanes/tropical storms...but I lost a house (or at least part of it). This isn't a game and I kinda feel like that's how it's being treated here by certain people.

Let's focus on what's important. That MANY MANY people are about to be hit by a very powerful and deadly hurricane named Ivan. I'm sending a ton of pixie dust and many prayers to those living in Hurricane Ivan's path. For them, this hurricane is very real and not just something they have read on a weather report. It will effect them in so many ways that some people will never understand. I'm praying for you all.

Kelly

Jennifer2003 · 09-16-2004, 12:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My point is this (and I mean to shout): STOP WATCHING WHAT EVERY TOM, DICK, AND HARRY HAS TO SAY ABOUT THIS *TROPICAL STORM* (*NOT* HURRICANE) AND LOOK AT THE NWS REPORTS AND GRAPHS FOR YOURSELF. THERE IS NO NEED FOR EVERYONE TO BE UP IN ARMS ABOUT SOMETHING THAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN AT THIS POINT!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL Thank you!! Couldn't have said it better myself...

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a game and I kinda feel like that's how it's being treated here by certain people.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, very well put.

for the gulf coast,

for the rest of Florida, and

to the people at the Weather Channel for braving the weather to keep us CORRECTLY and WELL informed.

Stay safe everyone...

Jennifer

WildAboutWDW · 09-16-2004, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is our life, not just a vacation for some people. I feel bad that some people may miss/delay their vacations because of the hurricanes/tropical storms...but I lost a house (or at least part of it). This isn't a game and I kinda feel like that's how it's being treated here by certain people.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't agree more!! Tracking and predicting the path of storms is neccessary to keep people safe, and not intended for entertainment purposes. No one can deny the amazing power of nature, but one would think this would lose its thrill when nature is tearing apart people's lives!

Although I too would not like to have long awaited vacation plans ruined, I cannot imagine voicing such concerns as important knowing that others reading these posts are facing serious worries of losing their homes or are concerned for their family.

Jill

**disneyknut** · 09-16-2004, 06:42 AM

Guys-

Let's all take a deep breath & count to ten!! I know that emotions are running high regarding these hurricanes & tropical storms (especially for those in their path) but we all need to remember that we all have different theorys of where the hurricanes/tropical storms will go next & are entitled to voice our concerns & opinions but only mother nature knows for sure..
With that said, I am sending pixie dust to those not only directly affected by the storms AND for those of us traveling in the affected areas..