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[hunnybe]

I don't know if I missed this conversation, but where do you think the "Dream" is headed to in 2011? Will it literally take over the Wonder's routes or will it be something different?
I ask because I am one of the few not on the bandwagon for Alaska and am thinking of booking on the "Dream" instead.

[becka]

Originally Posted by hunnybe

I don't know if I missed this conversation, but where do you think the "Dream" is headed to in 2011? Will it literally take over the Wonder's routes or will it be something different?
I ask because I am one of the few not on the bandwagon for Alaska and am thinking of booking on the "Dream" instead.

They mentioned 3,4 and 5 day cruises for 2011. My guess is the Dream will take over the regular 3/4 day routes and throw in a few 5 day double dips during the summer of 2011.

[Dave Marx]

Without a doubt, the Dream will be doing the 3- and 4-night Bahamas itineraries. The evidence points to a February/March 2011 inaugural cruise.

Now, since it's the innaugural season, they might offer a few special cruises as well - perhaps some 5-night Castaway Cay double-dips? I don't think we'll see many of them, though. With a brand-new ship, they really don't have to give folks additional incentives to book. I suspect that even a bunch of folks booked for 7- and 10-night cruises on the Magic and Wonder will also be trying to book on the Dreams for 2011. It's just too exciting a prospect!

I think they're holding off on releasing the Dreams' 2011 schedule for several reasons, but I don't think those reasons have a lot to do with special itineraries. One, by making a lot of noise about special itineraries now, and releasing the Dreams' schedule in late October, they get to be in the spotlight for a lot longer. More bang for the promotional buck. They probably also want to get the more expensive/harder-to-sell special itineraries well on their way to sold before they add a new "distraction." Finally, the sooner they start selling the 2011 Dream cruises, the longer those sailings will be in competition with DCL's 2010 unsold inventory. Disney really hates it when folks put off travel for a year because something new will be coming along.

As to duration... With both the Magic and Wonder doing 7-night or longer itineraries all year long (over 50% more 7- to 10-night sailings than usual), I'm not sure DCL can count on selling a whole lot more of those longer itineraries (that's already a significant expansion of long-itinerary availability). 5-nights, yeah, but 5-nighters also disrupt the two-sailings per week routine. If they do a 5-nighter one or more weeks in a row, they'd also have to do two 3-nighters in a row to get/keep the ship back on the normal Thursday-and-Sunday departures schedule.

I could take a big stab at something, but it's only a notion... Typically, cruise lines these days are running special one- or two-night travel industry/media cruises before the official "inaugural cruise." A 2-night travel/media cruise followed by a 5-night inaugural would keep the ship on its typical 7 day schedule.

In the most basic terms, the 3- and 4- night cruises have the biggest chunk of the DCL market. 2/3 of all Disney cruisers take the 3- and 4-night cruises, after all. That means that's where Disney has to put its expanded capacity first, because that's where they have the greatest likelihood of filling the new ships' expanded capacity. It's also more profitable for Disney, because many 3- and 4-night cruisers visit WDW as well, while very few of the 7-night cruisers visit WDW. This means a 3-night booking on DCL can actually mean 7 nights or more worth of business for Disney. I don't think DCL wants to mess with that. Except when the Wonder has been in dry dock, they've never interrupted the 3- and 4-night itineraries for any length of time.

Further, there's a lot of pent-up demand to experience the new ship, and shorter itineraries are the best way to let the largest number of folks sample the new ship.

I'll put my money on staying with the Bahamas. Since DCL is contractually obligated to home port the new ships at Port Canaveral, there's a very limited choice of reasonable 3- and 4-night destinations from there. While Key West plus Castaway Cay is within range for the 4-nighters, it comes with a higher fuel cost than Bahamas-only itineraries, and there's little evidence that Key West is sufficiently popular to justify a higher fare to make up those costs. Itineraries that visit spots like Charleston SC cannot also visit Castway Cay - I don't think many Disney cruisers would prefer Charleston over Castaway Cay.

Overall, I figure that Disney figures that, if they somehow have problems selling those 3- and 4-night itineraries (due to the Dreams' larger capacity), they can push Land/Sea vacations with regular WDW travelers, something they've never done to any great extent. "Upsell" offers to add a cruise when folks are on the line booking their WDW vacations, or including DCL more frequently in WDW-focused advertising would very quickly pick up any slack on the 3- and 4-night itineraries.

[modisney]

Well put, Dave. It simply makes sense. I hope (and also think it makes sense) that the Fantasy will then do Caribbean runs year round. It seems then that DCL is fully covered; the Magic doing European things, the Wonder doing West Coast stuff, the Dream doing the Bahamas and the Fantasy doing the Caribbean.

[Dave Marx]

Yep, that's my bet for the Fantasy, too. The longer the itinerary, the lower the demand, thanks to Americans' woefully short vacation schedules. That means they'll want to have the biggest ships on the shorter-length cruises (Dream - 3- and 4-night, Fantasy 7-night in the Caribbean market, Wonder 7-night in the West Coast market (with, hopefully, some 7-night one-way itineraries to Alaska in 2012 and beyond, so folks can do land/sea tours up there). Magic then can do longer Southern Caribbean/South American itineraries in the winter, and, very likely, continue with Europe in the summers.

[hunnybe]

Well, I tell you, that all sounds good to me. I prefer right now doing the closer to home cruises (ie the Bahamas and Caribbean) with two smaller kids. But I am also looking forward to the day when I can haul my kids in a couple of years to the Med and South America.

I had been reading all these messages about the 2011 cruises, though, and started to get a little nervous thinking I would miss the "ship" on reservations if the Dream were to be somewhere else!